Heightened Tensions in the Middle East After Assassinations
Since last month’s assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran. It followed by Hezbollah commander Fu’ad Shukr’s killing in Beirut, the Middle East has remained on high alert. Israel claimed responsibility for Shukr’s death but remained silent on Haniyeh’s assassination. Iran immediately vowed retaliation for the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) hinted that this response would take time.
Iran’s Promise of Retaliation
Ali Mohammad Naeini, spokesperson for the IRGC, stated that Iran’s retaliation would not be rushed. He emphasized that “time is on our side,” and the response would differ from previous operations against Israel. This strategy has left Israel and its regional allies living in uncertainty. Naeini added that Iran’s experienced commanders would carefully plan an effective response without taking hasty action.
Regional Diplomacy and Concerns of War
The killings of Haniyeh and Shukr intensified diplomatic efforts to prevent a broader regional conflict. Iran, along with Hezbollah and Hamas, blamed Israel for both assassinations and pledged retaliation. However, Iran indicated that its response would not be a repeat of past military actions, and that Israel must now live with instability.
300 projectiles
In April, Iran launched a significant direct attack on Israel, firing 300 projectiles after blaming Israel for a strike on an Iranian building in Damascus, which resulted in the death of a top IRGC commander, Mohammed Reza Zahedi.
Ceasefire and Iran’s Calculated Approach
Despite calls for retaliation, Iran has shown signs that it may reconsider its plans depending on the outcome of ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Iran’s mission to the United Nations noted that any action against Israel would be “carefully calibrated” to avoid disrupting a potential ceasefire. Iranian officials have stated that their response will be calculated and executed at the right moment to maximize surprise.
Former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaee also confirmed that while Iran seeks to avenge Haniyeh’s death, it will not derail efforts to establish peace in Gaza. This measured approach depends largely on the outcome of the ongoing ceasefire talks.
Ongoing Negotiations and Concerns
As ceasefire discussions continue, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that Israel had accepted a proposal to bridge gaps in negotiations, with further talks expected soon. Meanwhile, some officials speculate that Iran’s delay in responding stems from concerns that retaliation could escalate into a wider regional war. One diplomat suggested that Iran and Hezbollah may have trapped themselves with their vows of reprisals, fearing the consequences of immediate action.